STRATEGIC FORESIGHT: MANAGING THE FUTURE

Abstract

Problem setting. Foresight is a popular management methodology in the world. It is based on strategic planning and an understanding of the need to be responsible for all decisions not only in the short term, but also in the future. Foresight, integrated into the firm’s strategic management system, is a strategic foresight.

Analysis of recent researches and publications. Modern researches in the field of strategy are based on the works of the founders of strategic management: A. Chandler, K. Andrews, I. Ansoff. Subsequent generations of scientists have developed the science of strategy, its tools and technology, including foresight management. Among the researchers there are Ukrainian scientists: S.P. Dunda and O.S. Kovtun [1], Z.V. Frolova [2], M.G. Tzedik [3], A.M. Savchenko [4], N.V. Semenchenko and M.V. Shkrobot [5].

The target of research is to reveal the essence of the concept of strategic foresight and to analyze the possibilities of its practical implementation in the world and in Ukraine.

Article’s main body. Developing a business organization’s strategy begins with designing its future. The vision of the future is a figurative representation of the meaning of activity, an imaginary picture of what an organization should become in the future in the political, economic, social situation that has developed in the country. Properly formulated vision affects the mission and goals of the organization. Clearly defined guidelines for the development of a business organization are its competitive advantage.

Forecasting and scientific foresight are the most important for evaluating the prospects of business organization development. The author briefly describes the content of the business forecasting process. He also focuses on strategic foresight.

Foresight is the process of systematically identifying new priority areas for innovative development and possible technological perspectives that can significantly affect the socio-economic development of a country, region, industry or corporation in the long run. In contrast to forecasting, foresight has a different logic of research (future - present - future) and larger time horizons (25-50 years). A wide range of experts (sometimes several thousand) from various fields of activity are involved in foresight. The interdisciplinary nature of experts makes it possible to integrate the knowledge of specialists of various profiles - in the fields of statistics, micro and macroeconomics, marketing, finance, etc. When conducting a foresight, different methods are used: technological, scenario, analytical and expert methods. The center of foresight is scenario planning. In this case, foresight studies almost always involve the development of practical measures to achieve strategic guidelines for the development of the organization.

Large firms with long-term existence become customers of the corporate foresight. For strategic planning it is extremely important for them to know the prospects of development of industry, country, and world economy. But corporations are also beginning to conduct their own foresight researches, which becomes part of foresight management. The subjects of the latter are organizational foresighters. Their task is to shape the desired future of the organization and its individual units, independently or with external experts involved, in order to survive in an unstable environment.

The author described the process of strategic corporate foresight implementation and possible limitations of such practice. The latter are related to the different life cycles of modern firms; constant changes in the external environment of the business organization that were not foreseen during the foresight; low professionalism of strategists, business consultants and organizational foresighters.